Most prediction market liquidity is US-based. Algorithms pricing European events — German coalition formation, ECB rate decisions, Bundesliga match outcomes — rely on English-language sources and US-centric models. A trader who reads German-language political analysis, understands the mechanics of coalition mathematics, or follows Pinnacle line movements for Bundesliga has a structural edge that's difficult for algorithms to replicate.
Closelook is built on this thesis. German-language sources, European political knowledge, and Bundesliga analytics (via the Akte Bundesliga network) create information asymmetries that translate directly into prediction market alpha.
The 51 patterns span from simple fundamentals (consensus deviation, insider clustering) through technical signals (mean reversion, momentum) to structural edges (regulatory front-running, calendar effects, information cascade identification). Each pattern is scored for confidence and expected edge, then matched to the platform with the best execution (Kalshi for US-regulated markets, Polymarket for crypto-settled markets).
Directional Alpha is an active area of Closelook research and a potential standalone product. The framework document maps strategies to specific platforms and estimates expected edge per pattern type.
Structural Awareness Dossier →Weekly Signal →Akte Bundesliga Network →