Market Structure · Beta Instability

Market X-Ray

The chart can be fine while participation breaks down underneath. The X-Ray measures it directly — upside beta (on up-days), downside beta (on down-days), asymmetry and instability — across the key structure pairs and 343 names in our indices. Detecting the rotation before price makes it obvious.

vs S&P 500 28% losing upside participation, 37% gaining downside fragility

vs Nasdaq-100 33% losing upside participation, 26% gaining downside fragility

Updated daily · data as of 2026-06-12 · Participation fragile — fragility rising beneath the surface

Latest read The Generals Have Followed Their Troops — the breadth warning becomes price confirmation →

Toolboxes Daily Read → Beta Instability Breadth-of-Breadth · 69 Mixed participation → Ratio-Quality → Divergence Scanner → Alert Stack → Regime Baselines → Anomaly Score → Directory →

The pairs we watch — full scores

Each pair, decomposed on up-days and down-days separately. These are the published "Troops Leaving Before the Generals" set — now confirmed by price in "The Generals Have Followed Their Troops".

SMH / QQQ fragile

Semiconductor leadership vs Nasdaq

Upside β1.86

Downside β1.92

Asymmetry-0.06

Particip.0.97

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	2.01	1.81	1.86	1.71
down β	1.89	1.81	1.92	1.80

β-z +1.62instab 48 partic 80fragil 99

downside-beta expansionnegative beta asymmetry

XSD / QQQ fragile

Equal-weight semis vs Nasdaq

Upside β1.92

Downside β2.05

Asymmetry-0.13

Particip.0.94

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	2.07	1.78	1.92	1.91
down β	2.31	2.26	2.05	1.95

β-z +1.69instab 64 partic 94fragil 100

downside-beta expansionnegative beta asymmetrydownside-beta expansion (sharp)

XSD / SPY fragile

Equal-weight semis vs market

Upside β2.25

Downside β2.46

Asymmetry-0.21

Particip.0.91

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	3.28	2.04	2.25	2.40
down β	3.20	2.90	2.46	2.55

β-z +1.49instab 77 partic 69fragil 89

downside-beta expansionnegative beta asymmetryupside participation deteriorating (sharp)downside-beta expansion (sharp)

IWM / SPY neutral

Small-cap participation

Upside β1.28

Downside β1.11

Asymmetry+0.16

Particip.1.15

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	1.74	1.20	1.28	1.47
down β	1.25	1.14	1.11	1.22

β-z -0.06instab 6 partic 44fragil 45

early beta improvement

RSP / SPY neutral

S&P 500 equal-weight participation

Upside β0.78

Downside β0.78

Asymmetry+0.00

Particip.1.00

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	0.79	0.77	0.78	0.82
down β	0.81	0.73	0.78	0.77

β-z -1.11instab 26 partic 32fragil 48

HYG / SPY neutral

Credit confirmation

Upside β0.29

Downside β0.22

Asymmetry+0.07

Particip.1.35

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	0.39	0.30	0.29	0.30
down β	0.21	0.22	0.22	0.18

β-z +1.29instab 27 partic 54fragil 54

ARKK / QQQ neutral

Speculative-growth appetite

Upside β1.48

Downside β1.54

Asymmetry-0.06

Particip.0.96

horizon	21d	63d	126d	252d
up β	1.12	1.31	1.48	1.45
down β	1.59	1.46	1.54	1.76

β-z -1.82instab 47 partic 61fragil 38

negative beta asymmetryupside participation deteriorating (sharp)

Participation breadth — by index (vs S&P 500)

lake 1641 names 28% losing upside participation, 35% gaining downside fragility rubin 101 names 15% losing upside participation, 65% gaining downside fragility halo 100 names 17% losing upside participation, 36% gaining downside fragility agentic 99 names 59% losing upside participation, 40% gaining downside fragility euro-ai 65 names 17% losing upside participation, 31% gaining downside fragility etfs 13 names 15% losing upside participation, 31% gaining downside fragility

Want a specific name? Open the X-Ray Directory → — search, sort and open any of 2019 names on the full toolbox vs SPY & Nasdaq.

How to read it

For each pair (asset vs benchmark), returns are split into the benchmark's up-days and down-days. Upside β is participation in rallies; downside β is vulnerability in selloffs; asymmetry (up − down) and the participation ratio (up ÷ down) say whether an asset captures more upside than downside. Read across 21 / 63 / 126 / 252 days: a sharp drop at the short horizon while the long looks fine is the early warning.

For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Scores are relative and descriptive. Cross-read with the Money Temperature regime.