Agentic Demand Index · v3 · 8 pulses · multi-basket value-capture-layer architecture
Agentic Demand Index
Where are agentic AI workloads emerging? Eight operational pulses — each measuring a different value-capture-layer (App Builders · Tollbooths · Infrastructure · Endpoints · Security · Industrial) with its own multi-basket equity-gaps. The hardware buildout (CCST · TAISP · MHP · STP) tells you what supply looks like. These pulses tell you whether demand is showing up to consume it — and which value-capture-layer reacts first.
Agentic Demand Index — equal-weighted average of the 8 live pulses below (8 of 9 reporting). Each pulse counts once; a pulse with no current reading drops out rather than being filled in.
Share of 70,000+ US businesses with a paid AI transaction in June 2026, per the Ramp AI Index — actual card + bill-pay spend, not market pricing. The pulses above read how markets price agentic demand; this reads whether businesses are actually paying for it. Divergence between the two is the signal. Feeds EAP as its M4 · Ramp-Adoption module. Vendor split: Anthropic 42.4% · OpenAI 39.5% · Google 6.4%.
Open forward-deployed engineering roles across 6 AI value-chain companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, Palantir, Scale, Sierra), counted daily from their public job boards — 315 including deployment/applied-AI roles, 12.44% of all their open positions. The demand pulses read how markets price agentic uptake; FDE hiring reads whether vendors are staffing to deploy it. Full read on the Forward Deployment Pulse.
44 points · since 2026-06-02
Enterprise Infrastructure Pulse
AI Factory: GPU · Server · Network · Power
Enterprise Workflow Pulse
SaaS Agents: Workflow · Tools · Observability
Consumer Cloud Pulse
Cloud Agents: Tokens · Apps · API
Enterprise Application Pulse
App-Developers: 5 sub-baskets, vertical splits
Consumer Endpoint Agent Pulse
Devices: Smartphones · AI-PCs · Wearables · XR
Industrial / Physical Agent Pulse
Physical: Factory · Robotics · FPGA · Auto
Tollbooth Pulse
Monetization: Cloud + Neo-Cloud + API + Data Tollbooth
Agentic Security Pulse
Security: Identity · Endpoint · Network · Data Sec
Forward Deployment Pulse
Supply side: FDE hiring across the value chain
How the family is structured
The headline. The Agentic Demand Index is the equal-weighted average of the live pulse composites — each pulse counts once, and any pulse not currently reporting is dropped and the rest renormalised (never a neutral placeholder). It reads the breadth of agentic demand across the eight value-capture layers and moves as the pulses below move.
Each pulse runs as its own Cloudflare worker on its own cadence (CCP hourly, EWP weekdays, EIP daily, EAP weekly, CEP & IAP monthly). Each writes a composite score 0-100 plus per-module breakdown to KV. The composite reads the momentum regime of demand: ≥70 = Surging, 40–69 = Scaling, <40 = Emerging — how hard demand is moving, not how far it has spread (a high reading can precede broad adoption by years). Once enough history accumulates, a falling trend shows as a cooling arrow on the series.
Each pulse also computes an Equity Gap — the difference between its composite 3-month momentum and the 3-month momentum of its equity basket. Positive gap = operational signal is improving faster than stocks are pricing in (bullish divergence). Negative gap = stocks have priced in more than the operational signal supports (bearish divergence).
Two family-wide sub-modules apply across pulses: Maturity Score tags each stock T1/T2/T3 by disclosed volume (demo / early-production / mass-production), and Legacy-vs-Agent Decomposition separates net agentic ARR growth from legacy ARR decay for stocks with both businesses running parallel (CRM · NOW · SAP pattern).
Family reading is a diary entry on our process, not investment advice.