Market X-Ray · Toolbox 4
Dynamic Divergence Scanner
The classic divergence is price making a new high while RSI does not. This is the market-structure version: the index rises, but equal-weight breadth, credit, small-caps and concentration don't confirm. Each relationship is scored on how unusually large the gap is versus its own history, how long it has persisted, and whether the other toolboxes agree — then rolled into one Global Divergence Risk Score and a regime read.
Updated daily · data as of 2026-08-28
By family
Alerts — non-confirmations & clusters
SMH is up over 21d but the move is inefficient (choppy) — Semis are higher but on a noisy, low-efficiency path — leadership without clean momentum.
- 21d trend efficiency 7/100 · 63d 5
- SMH +2.6% / 21d
- Severity 86/100 (critical) · Strong · confirmed by 1 module
SPY has risen over 21 days while IWM/SPY has not confirmed (+6.4% gap) — Large-cap strength is not confirmed by small-cap participation.
- SPY +3.7% vs IWM/SPY -2.6% over 21d
- Gap +6.4% · z 1.36 · 21d
- 4d active · Worsening · confirmed by 2 modules
SPY is up over 21d but the move is inefficient (choppy) — The S&P is higher but the move is inefficient — a choppy, low-quality grind rather than a clean trend.
- 21d trend efficiency 34/100 · 63d 5
- SPY +3.7% / 21d
- Severity 76/100 (strong) · Strong · confirmed by 1 module
SPY has risen over 21 days while MDY/SPY has not confirmed (+7.1% gap) — Mid-caps are not confirming large-cap strength.
- SPY +3.7% vs MDY/SPY -3.1% over 21d
- Gap +7.1% · z 1.09 · 21d
- 8d active · Strong · confirmed by 2 modules
QQQ has risen over 21 days while SMH/XLK has not confirmed (+7.9% gap) — Semis — the cycle tell — are not confirming Nasdaq strength.
- QQQ +4.8% vs SMH/XLK -2.9% over 21d
- Gap +7.9% · z 1.55 · 21d
- 1d active · Strong · confirmed by 2 modules
5 of 7 breadth relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.
- 5 active divergences
- Family score 68/100 (Strong divergence)
SPY has risen over 21 days while RSP/SPY has not confirmed (+5% gap) — S&P 500 headline strength is not confirmed by the average (equal-weight) stock.
- SPY +3.7% vs RSP/SPY -1.2% over 21d
- Gap +5% · z 0.64 · 21d
- 3d active · Worsening · confirmed by 2 modules
QQQ is weak over 63 days while QNXT/QTOP is improving (-10.3% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- QQQ -2.9% vs QNXT/QTOP +8.3% over 63d
- Gap -10.3% · z -1.74 · 63d
- 0d active · Emerging
XLK is weak over 63 days while IGV/XLK is improving (-12.1% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- XLK -2.7% vs IGV/XLK +10.7% over 63d
- Gap -12.1% · z -2.57 · 63d
- 0d active · Worsening
3 of 3 concentration relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.
- 3 active divergences
- Family score 57/100 (Diverging)
3 of 5 beta relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.
- 3 active divergences
- Family score 55/100 (Diverging)
Every relationship — scanned
| Divergence | Dir | Severity | Gap | z | Days | State | Confirm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semis efficiency divergence SMH vs SMH momentum | ▼ bear | 86 | — | — | 0 | Strong | 1× |
| Small-cap divergence SPY vs IWM/SPY | ▼ bear | 76 | +6.4% | 1.36 | 4 | Worsening | 2× |
| S&P price-momentum divergence SPY vs SPY momentum | ▼ bear | 76 | — | — | 0 | Strong | 1× |
| Mid-cap divergence SPY vs MDY/SPY | ▼ bear | 75 | +7.1% | 1.09 | 8 | Strong | 2× |
| Semiconductor divergence QQQ vs SMH/XLK | ▼ bear | 74 | +7.9% | 1.55 | 1 | Strong | 2× |
| S&P 500 breadth divergence SPY vs RSP/SPY | ▼ bear | 64 | +5% | 0.64 | 3 | Worsening | 2× |
| Nasdaq lower-70 divergence QQQ vs QNXT/QTOP | ▲ bull | 64 | -10.3% | -1.74 | 0 | Emerging | — |
| Small-cap upside-beta failure SPY vs β IWM/SPY | ▼ bear | 64 | — | — | 0 | Active | 1× |
| Software divergence XLK vs IGV/XLK | ▲ bull | 64 | -12.1% | -2.57 | 0 | Worsening | — |
| Nasdaq breadth divergence QQQ vs QQQE/QQQ | ▲ bull | 62 | -8.1% | -1.62 | 0 | Emerging | 1× |
| Top-30 Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QTOP/QNXT | ▲ bull | 61 | -10.3% | -1.74 | 0 | Emerging | — |
| Semis leadership-exhaustion beta SMH vs β SMH/XLK | ▼ bear | 57 | — | — | 0 | Active | 1× |
| S&P concentration SPY vs SPY/RSP | ▼ bear | 55 | +5% | 0.64 | 3 | Worsening | — |
| Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QQQ/QQQE | ▲ bull | 55 | -8.1% | -1.62 | 0 | Emerging | — |
| Credit beta failure SPY vs β HYG/SPY | ▼ bear | 43 | — | — | 0 | Emerging | — |
| S&P ex-Mag-7 divergence SPY vs XMAG/SPY | · none | 0 | +4.7% | 0.7 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Credit divergence SPY vs HYG/LQD | · none | 0 | +3.3% | 0.56 | — | No divergence | — |
| High-beta divergence SPY vs SPHB/SPLV | · none | 0 | -2.3% | -0.3 | — | No divergence | — |
| Nasdaq breadth beta failure QQQ vs β QQQE/QQQ | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| Breadth-momentum divergence SPY vs Breadth-of-Breadth | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| S&P ex-tech divergence SPY vs SPXT/SPY | · none | 0 | +4.7% | 0.54 | — | No divergence | 2× |
| Consumer risk divergence SPY vs XLY/XLP | · none | 0 | -0.6% | -0.5 | — | No divergence | — |
| Cyclical divergence SPY vs XLI/XLU | · none | 0 | -0.1% | -0.1 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Small-cap downside-beta warning SPY vs β IWM/SPY | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| AI divergence XLK vs AIQ/XLK | · none | 0 | +2% | -0.13 | — | No divergence | — |
| Nasdaq vol-adjusted divergence QQQ vs QQQ momentum | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
How to read it
For each rule a primary price index is compared with a confirmation structure series. Returns are direction-normalised (a rising concentration ratio counts as bearish), so the divergence gap = primary return − normalised confirmation return is positive whenever the headline is outrunning what's underneath. The gap is z-scored against its own 252-day history; severity blends magnitude (vs a horizon target), that historical extremeness, persistence (days the divergence has held), importance, 21d/63d agreement, and how many other toolboxes (Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality, Beta-Instability) confirm. Bearish = index up while structure fails; bullish = index weak while structure quietly improves. NH marks a new-high non-confirmation.
For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Cross-reads with Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Beta-Instability X-Ray.
FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-08-28
Quick answers
What does the Dynamic Divergence Scanner track?
It scans whether the headline index (S&P 500 / Nasdaq-100) is trending one way while the structure beneath it — breadth, credit, small-caps, concentration — trends the other. Each relationship is severity-scored on how unusual the gap is versus its own history, how long it has persisted, and whether other toolboxes agree, then rolled into one Global Divergence Risk Score.
What is the Global Divergence Risk Score right now?
As of 2026-08-28, the Global Divergence Risk Score is 51, labeled "moderate", in a "Leadership exhaustion" regime.
How many divergences are currently active?
As of 2026-08-28, 15 divergences are active — 10 bearish (index up, structure not confirming) and 5 bullish (index weak, structure improving).
How is a divergence’s severity scored?
The divergence gap (primary index return minus direction-normalised confirmation return) is z-scored against its own 252-day history. Severity blends that magnitude and historical extremeness with persistence (days active), importance, 21-day/63-day agreement, and how many other toolboxes — Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality, Beta-Instability — confirm the same read.