Market X-Ray · Toolbox 4
Dynamic Divergence Scanner
The classic divergence is price making a new high while RSI does not. This is the market-structure version: the index rises, but equal-weight breadth, credit, small-caps and concentration don't confirm. Each relationship is scored on how unusually large the gap is versus its own history, how long it has persisted, and whether the other toolboxes agree — then rolled into one Global Divergence Risk Score and a regime read.
Updated daily · data as of 2026-06-12
By family
Alerts — non-confirmations & clusters
QQQ is up over 21d but its vol-adjusted momentum is deteriorating — Nasdaq is higher but its volatility-adjusted momentum is deteriorating — more risk for less directional progress.
- Vol-adj momentum 0.56 (was 13.07)
- QQQ +0.9% / 21d
- Severity 70/100 (strong) · Strong
QQQ has risen over 63 days while QQQE/QQQ has not confirmed (+23.4% gap) — Nasdaq-100 strength is not confirmed by the average Nasdaq stock.
- QQQ +21.6% vs QQQE/QQQ -1.4% over 63d
- Gap +23.4% · z 1.06 · 63d
- 0d active · Emerging · confirmed by 1 module
SMH is up over 21d but the move is inefficient (choppy) — Semis are higher but on a noisy, low-efficiency path — leadership without clean momentum.
- 21d trend efficiency 15/100 · 63d 34
- SMH +8.3% / 21d
- Severity 62/100 (moderate) · Active
SPY has risen over 63 days while SPXT/SPY has not confirmed (+19.5% gap) — Non-tech S&P 500 is not keeping pace with the headline.
- SPY +12.3% vs SPXT/SPY -6% over 63d
- Gap +19.5% · z 1.28 · 63d
- 0d active · Emerging · confirmed by 1 module
QQQ has risen over 63 days while QNXT/QTOP has not confirmed (+28.4% gap) — The lower 70 Nasdaq-100 names are not confirming the top 30.
- QQQ +21.6% vs QNXT/QTOP -5.3% over 63d
- Gap +28.4% · z 1.2 · 63d
- 0d active · Emerging
4 of 7 breadth relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.
- 4 active divergences
- Family score 60/100 (Diverging)
XLK has risen over 21 days while IGV/XLK has not confirmed (+6.7% gap) — Software is not confirming broad-tech strength.
- XLK +4.5% vs IGV/XLK -2% over 21d
- Gap +6.7% · z -0.22 · confirmed 21d & 63d
- 2d active · Worsening · confirmed by 1 module
QQQ has risen over 63 days while QTOP/QNXT has not confirmed (+28.4% gap) — The top-30 Nasdaq names are increasingly carrying the index.
- QQQ +21.6% vs QTOP/QNXT +5.5% over 63d
- Gap +28.4% · z 1.2 · 63d
- 0d active · Emerging
SPY has risen over 63 days while RSP/SPY has not confirmed (+14.8% gap) — S&P 500 headline strength is not confirmed by the average (equal-weight) stock.
- SPY +12.3% vs RSP/SPY -2.2% over 63d
- Gap +14.8% · z 0.75 · 63d
- 0d active · Emerging
3 of 3 concentration relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.
- 3 active divergences
- Family score 55/100 (Diverging)
Every relationship — scanned
| Divergence | Dir | Severity | Gap | z | Days | State | Confirm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq vol-adjusted divergence QQQ vs QQQ momentum | ▼ bear | 70 | — | — | 0 | Strong | — |
| Nasdaq breadth divergence QQQ vs QQQE/QQQ | ▼ bear | 62 | +23.4% | 1.06 | 0 | Emerging | 1× |
| Semis efficiency divergence SMH vs SMH momentum | ▼ bear | 62 | — | — | 0 | Active | — |
| S&P ex-tech divergence SPY vs SPXT/SPY | ▼ bear | 61 | +19.5% | 1.28 | 0 | Emerging | 1× |
| Nasdaq lower-70 divergence QQQ vs QNXT/QTOP | ▼ bear | 60 | +28.4% | 1.2 | 0 | Emerging | — |
| Software divergence XLK vs IGV/XLK | ▼ bear | 59 | +6.7% | -0.22 | 2 | Worsening | 1× |
| Top-30 Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QTOP/QNXT | ▼ bear | 57 | +28.4% | 1.2 | 0 | Emerging | — |
| S&P 500 breadth divergence SPY vs RSP/SPY | ▼ bear | 56 | +14.8% | 0.75 | 0 | Emerging | — |
| Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QQQ/QQQE | ▼ bear | 56 | +23.4% | 1.06 | 0 | Emerging | — |
| AI divergence XLK vs AIQ/XLK | ▼ bear | 54 | +6% | 0.3 | 1 | Emerging | — |
| S&P concentration SPY vs SPY/RSP | ▼ bear | 53 | +14.8% | 0.75 | 0 | Emerging | — |
| S&P ex-Mag-7 divergence SPY vs XMAG/SPY | · none | 0 | -4.4% | -1.64 | — | No divergence | — |
| Small-cap divergence SPY vs IWM/SPY | · none | 0 | -3.7% | -1.37 | — | No divergence | — |
| Credit divergence SPY vs HYG/LQD | · none | 0 | +0.1% | -0.56 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| High-beta divergence SPY vs SPHB/SPLV | · none | 0 | -3.4% | -0.48 | — | No divergence | — |
| Small-cap upside-beta failure SPY vs β IWM/SPY | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| Nasdaq breadth beta failure QQQ vs β QQQE/QQQ | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| Credit beta failure SPY vs β HYG/SPY | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| Breadth-momentum divergence SPY vs Breadth-of-Breadth | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| Mid-cap divergence SPY vs MDY/SPY | · none | 0 | -3.9% | -1.37 | — | No divergence | — |
| Consumer risk divergence SPY vs XLY/XLP | · none | 0 | +3.1% | 0.28 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Cyclical divergence SPY vs XLI/XLU | · none | 0 | -1.8% | -0.82 | — | No divergence | — |
| Semiconductor divergence QQQ vs SMH/XLK | · none | 0 | -2.6% | -0.4 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Small-cap downside-beta warning SPY vs β IWM/SPY | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| Semis leadership-exhaustion beta SMH vs β SMH/XLK | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
| S&P price-momentum divergence SPY vs SPY momentum | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | — |
How to read it
For each rule a primary price index is compared with a confirmation structure series. Returns are direction-normalised (a rising concentration ratio counts as bearish), so the divergence gap = primary return − normalised confirmation return is positive whenever the headline is outrunning what's underneath. The gap is z-scored against its own 252-day history; severity blends magnitude (vs a horizon target), that historical extremeness, persistence (days the divergence has held), importance, 21d/63d agreement, and how many other toolboxes (Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality, Beta-Instability) confirm. Bearish = index up while structure fails; bullish = index weak while structure quietly improves. NH marks a new-high non-confirmation.
For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Cross-reads with Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Beta-Instability X-Ray.