Market X-Ray · Toolbox 4
Dynamic Divergence Scanner
The classic divergence is price making a new high while RSI does not. This is the market-structure version: the index rises, but equal-weight breadth, credit, small-caps and concentration don't confirm. Each relationship is scored on how unusually large the gap is versus its own history, how long it has persisted, and whether the other toolboxes agree — then rolled into one Global Divergence Risk Score and a regime read.
Updated daily · data as of 2026-10-09
By family
Alerts — non-confirmations & clusters
QQQ has risen over 21 days while QQQE/QQQ has not confirmed (+8.4% gap) — Nasdaq-100 strength is not confirmed by the average Nasdaq stock.
- QQQ +6.1% vs QQQE/QQQ -2.1% over 21d
- Gap +8.4% · z 0.91 · confirmed 21d & 63d
- 15d active · Persistent · confirmed by 3 modules
SPY has risen over 21 days while IWM/SPY has not confirmed (+9.1% gap) — Large-cap strength is not confirmed by small-cap participation.
- SPY +3% vs IWM/SPY -5.6% over 21d
- Gap +9.1% · z 1.8 · confirmed 21d & 63d
- 1d active · Strong · confirmed by 3 modules
SPY is up over 21d but breadth momentum is rolling over — The S&P is rising while the Breadth-of-Breadth score is deteriorating — participation momentum is rolling over beneath the index.
- Breadth score 27/100
- Breadth trend deteriorating
- SPY +3% / 21d
- Severity 82/100 (critical) · Strong · confirmed by 1 module
QQQ has risen over 21 days while QNXT/QTOP has not confirmed (+9.5% gap) — The lower 70 Nasdaq-100 names are not confirming the top 30.
- QQQ +6.1% vs QNXT/QTOP -3.1% over 21d
- Gap +9.5% · z 0.81 · confirmed 21d & 63d
- 15d active · Persistent · confirmed by 2 modules
SPY is up over 21d but the move is inefficient (choppy) — The S&P is higher but the move is inefficient — a choppy, low-quality grind rather than a clean trend.
- 21d trend efficiency 27/100 · 63d 12
- SPY +3% / 21d
- Severity 80/100 (critical) · Strong · confirmed by 1 module
3 of 4 momentum relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.
- 3 active divergences
- Family score 80/100 (Critical divergence)
SMH is up over 21d but the move is inefficient (choppy) — Semis are higher but on a noisy, low-efficiency path — leadership without clean momentum.
- 21d trend efficiency 23/100 · 63d 3
- SMH +7.7% / 21d
- Severity 77/100 (strong) · Strong · confirmed by 1 module
QQQ has risen over 21 days while QQQ/QQQE has not confirmed (+8.4% gap) — Nasdaq gains are concentrating in the largest names.
- QQQ +6.1% vs QQQ/QQQE +2.2% over 21d
- Gap +8.4% · z 0.91 · confirmed 21d & 63d
- 15d active · Persistent · confirmed by 1 module
QQQ has risen over 21 days while QTOP/QNXT has not confirmed (+9.5% gap) — The top-30 Nasdaq names are increasingly carrying the index.
- QQQ +6.1% vs QTOP/QNXT +3.1% over 21d
- Gap +9.5% · z 0.81 · confirmed 21d & 63d
- 15d active · Persistent · confirmed by 1 module
7 of 7 breadth relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.
- 7 active divergences
- Family score 75/100 (Strong divergence)
3 of 3 concentration relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.
- 3 active divergences
- Family score 71/100 (Strong divergence)
4 of 5 beta relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.
- 4 active divergences
- Family score 60/100 (Diverging)
Every relationship — scanned
| Divergence | Dir | Severity | Gap | z | Days | State | Confirm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq breadth divergence QQQ vs QQQE/QQQ | ▼ bear | 85 | +8.4% | 0.91 | 15 | Persistent | 3× |
| Small-cap divergence SPY vs IWM/SPY | ▼ bear | 82 | +9.1% | 1.8 | 1 | Strong | 3× |
| Breadth-momentum divergence SPY vs Breadth-of-Breadth | ▼ bear | 82 | — | — | 0 | Strong | 1× |
| Nasdaq lower-70 divergence QQQ vs QNXT/QTOP | ▼ bear | 81 | +9.5% | 0.81 | 15 | Persistent | 2× |
| S&P price-momentum divergence SPY vs SPY momentum | ▼ bear | 80 | — | — | 0 | Strong | 1× |
| Semis efficiency divergence SMH vs SMH momentum | ▼ bear | 77 | — | — | 0 | Strong | 1× |
| Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QQQ/QQQE | ▼ bear | 75 | +8.4% | 0.91 | 15 | Persistent | 1× |
| Top-30 Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QTOP/QNXT | ▼ bear | 75 | +9.5% | 0.81 | 15 | Persistent | 1× |
| Small-cap upside-beta failure SPY vs β IWM/SPY | ▼ bear | 74 | — | — | 0 | Strong | 2× |
| AI divergence XLK vs AIQ/XLK | ▼ bear | 74 | +9.3% | 0.84 | 16 | Persistent | 1× |
| Mid-cap divergence SPY vs MDY/SPY | ▼ bear | 73 | +6.4% | 0.96 | 1 | Worsening | 3× |
| S&P 500 breadth divergence SPY vs RSP/SPY | ▼ bear | 72 | +5.7% | 0.81 | 1 | Strong | 3× |
| Semiconductor divergence QQQ vs SMH/XLK | ▼ bear | 68 | +12.6% | 1.41 | 0 | Strong | 2× |
| S&P ex-tech divergence SPY vs SPXT/SPY | ▼ bear | 67 | +5.4% | 0.71 | 1 | Strong | 3× |
| S&P concentration SPY vs SPY/RSP | ▼ bear | 63 | +5.7% | 0.81 | 1 | Emerging | 1× |
| S&P ex-Mag-7 divergence SPY vs XMAG/SPY | ▼ bear | 62 | +4.5% | 0.71 | 1 | Worsening | 2× |
| Small-cap downside-beta warning SPY vs β IWM/SPY | ▼ bear | 62 | — | — | 0 | Active | 2× |
| Semis leadership-exhaustion beta SMH vs β SMH/XLK | ▼ bear | 58 | — | — | 0 | Active | 2× |
| Credit beta failure SPY vs β HYG/SPY | ▼ bear | 45 | — | — | 0 | Active | 1× |
| Consumer risk divergence SPY vs XLY/XLP | ▼ bear | 35 | +6.1% | -0.07 | 0 | Emerging | — |
| Credit divergence SPY vs HYG/LQD | · none | 0 | +2.9% | 0.6 | — | No divergence | — |
| High-beta divergence SPY vs SPHB/SPLV | · none | 0 | -5% | -0.76 | — | No divergence | — |
| Nasdaq breadth beta failure QQQ vs β QQQE/QQQ | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 2× |
| Cyclical divergence SPY vs XLI/XLU | · none | 0 | +1.5% | 0.4 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Software divergence XLK vs IGV/XLK | · none | 0 | +3.7% | -0.23 | — | No divergence | — |
| Nasdaq vol-adjusted divergence QQQ vs QQQ momentum | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
How to read it
For each rule a primary price index is compared with a confirmation structure series. Returns are direction-normalised (a rising concentration ratio counts as bearish), so the divergence gap = primary return − normalised confirmation return is positive whenever the headline is outrunning what's underneath. The gap is z-scored against its own 252-day history; severity blends magnitude (vs a horizon target), that historical extremeness, persistence (days the divergence has held), importance, 21d/63d agreement, and how many other toolboxes (Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality, Beta-Instability) confirm. Bearish = index up while structure fails; bullish = index weak while structure quietly improves. NH marks a new-high non-confirmation.
For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Cross-reads with Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Beta-Instability X-Ray.
FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-10-09
Quick answers
What does the Dynamic Divergence Scanner track?
It scans whether the headline index (S&P 500 / Nasdaq-100) is trending one way while the structure beneath it — breadth, credit, small-caps, concentration — trends the other. Each relationship is severity-scored on how unusual the gap is versus its own history, how long it has persisted, and whether other toolboxes agree, then rolled into one Global Divergence Risk Score.
What is the Global Divergence Risk Score right now?
As of 2026-10-09, the Global Divergence Risk Score is 64, labeled "moderate", in a "Mega-cap concentration warning" regime.
How many divergences are currently active?
As of 2026-10-09, 20 divergences are active — 20 bearish (index up, structure not confirming) and 0 bullish (index weak, structure improving).
How is a divergence’s severity scored?
The divergence gap (primary index return minus direction-normalised confirmation return) is z-scored against its own 252-day history. Severity blends that magnitude and historical extremeness with persistence (days active), importance, 21-day/63-day agreement, and how many other toolboxes — Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality, Beta-Instability — confirm the same read.