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Market X-Ray · Toolbox 6 · Cross-Toolbox Scoring

Market Structure Alert Stack

Four toolboxes — Beta-Instability, Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Divergence Scanner — each raise their own alerts. On their own they're noise. This layer asks the only question that matters: do they agree? It clusters every alert by what it implies for the market and scores each cluster by how many independent tools confirm it — turning dozens of isolated signals into one ranked stack and a single Master Risk Score.

Master Market-Structure Risk 85 critical
Top-priority signal Narrowing participation Regime: Mega-cap concentration warning

Updated daily · data as of 2026-10-09

Confirmed clusters 2 ≥2 toolboxes agree
Alert clusters 6 by market implication
Raw alerts 39 across all four tools
Dominant Narrowing participation top-priority implication

The stack — ranked, confirmed clusters

1
Narrowing participation bearish
75 high
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 3/4 confirm · 11 alerts
  • Ratio-Quality100 Cyclical Breadth rising mainly because XLU fell sharply — a mechanically misleading improvement.
  • Ratio-Quality100 Financial Risk Breadth falling on KBE weakness — KBE dropping faster than XLU, a high-quality warning.
  • Divergence85 QQQ has risen over 21 days while QQQE/QQQ has not confirmed (+8.4% gap) — Nasdaq-100 strength is not confirmed by the average Nasdaq stock.
  • Divergence82 SPY has risen over 21 days while IWM/SPY has not confirmed (+9.1% gap) — Large-cap strength is not confirmed by small-cap participation.
  • Divergence81 QQQ has risen over 21 days while QNXT/QTOP has not confirmed (+9.5% gap) — The lower 70 Nasdaq-100 names are not confirming the top 30.
  • Divergence73 SPY has risen over 21 days while MDY/SPY has not confirmed (+6.4% gap) — Mid-caps are not confirming large-cap strength.
  • Divergence72 SPY has risen over 21 days while RSP/SPY has not confirmed (+5.7% gap) — S&P 500 headline strength is not confirmed by the average (equal-weight) stock.
  • Divergence67 SPY has risen over 21 days while SPXT/SPY has not confirmed (+5.4% gap) — Non-tech S&P 500 is not keeping pace with the headline.
  • Breadth66 Headline index strength is not confirmed by internal participation.
  • Divergence62 SPY has risen over 21 days while XMAG/SPY has not confirmed (+4.5% gap) — The index is rising without the 493 stocks outside the Mag-7.
  • Ratio-Quality54 Micro-Cap Breadth falling on IWC weakness — IWC dropping faster than IWM, a high-quality warning.
2
Mega-cap concentration bearish
60 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 3 alerts
  • Divergence75 QQQ has risen over 21 days while QQQ/QQQE has not confirmed (+8.4% gap) — Nasdaq gains are concentrating in the largest names.
  • Divergence75 QQQ has risen over 21 days while QTOP/QNXT has not confirmed (+9.5% gap) — The top-30 Nasdaq names are increasingly carrying the index.
  • Divergence63 SPY has risen over 21 days while SPY/RSP has not confirmed (+5.7% gap) — The S&P advance is becoming more dependent on the cap-weighted mega-caps.
3
Leadership exhaustion bearish
58 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 5 alerts
  • Divergence82 SPY is up over 21d but breadth momentum is rolling over — The S&P is rising while the Breadth-of-Breadth score is deteriorating — participation momentum is rolling over beneath the index.
  • Divergence80 SPY is up over 21d but the move is inefficient (choppy) — The S&P is higher but the move is inefficient — a choppy, low-quality grind rather than a clean trend.
  • Divergence77 SMH is up over 21d but the move is inefficient (choppy) — Semis are higher but on a noisy, low-efficiency path — leadership without clean momentum.
  • Divergence74 XLK has risen over 21 days while AIQ/XLK has not confirmed (+9.3% gap) — The AI basket is not confirming broad-tech leadership.
  • Divergence68 QQQ has risen over 63 days while SMH/XLK has not confirmed (+12.6% gap) — Semis — the cycle tell — are not confirming Nasdaq strength.
4
Hidden fragility bearish
50 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 2/4 confirm · 17 alerts
  • Divergence74 SPY is rising over 21d while IWM/SPY upside participation is fading — The S&P is rising but small-caps’ upside (up-day) beta is fading — they are not capturing the advance.
  • Divergence62 SPY is rising over 21d while IWM/SPY downside beta is rising — Small-cap downside beta is rising while the index holds — latent fragility beneath a stable tape.
  • Divergence58 SMH is rising over 21d while SMH/XLK upside participation is fading — Semis are rising but their upside beta to broad tech is fading — leadership quality is exhausting.
  • Beta54 XSD/SPY: neutral — downside-beta expansion, upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Divergence45 SPY is rising over 21d while HYG/SPY upside participation is fading — Equities are rising but high-yield credit’s upside beta is fading — credit isn’t capturing the risk-on.
  • Beta43 ARKK/QQQ: neutral — early beta improvement, downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta40 IGV/XLK: neutral — upside-beta collapse, early beta improvement
  • Beta39 IWM/SPY: neutral — upside-beta collapse, negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance, upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta37 QTOP/QQQ: healthy-leader — downside-beta expansion, downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta29 XSD/QQQ: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry, upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
  • Beta28 RSP/SPY: neutral — upside-beta collapse, negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance
  • Beta28 QNXT/QQQ: neutral — upside-beta collapse, negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance
  • Beta23 SPXT/SPY: neutral — upside-beta collapse, negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance, upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta21 XMAG/SPY: neutral — beta-adjusted underperformance, downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta19 SMH/QQQ: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance, upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
  • Beta19 SMH/XLK: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance, downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta8 HYG/SPY: neutral — upside-beta collapse, beta-adjusted underperformance, downside-beta expansion (sharp)
5
Risk-off / credit non-confirmation bearish
47 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 1 alert
  • Divergence35 SPY has risen over 63 days while XLY/XLP has not confirmed (+6.1% gap) — Discretionary is not outperforming staples — a cautious consumer.
6
Distribution risk bearish
45 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 2 alerts
  • Beta40 QQQE/QQQ: distribution — upside-beta collapse, negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance
  • Beta31 MDY/SPY: distribution — upside-beta collapse, negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance, upside participation deteriorating (sharp)

How to read it

Every toolbox's alerts are normalised into one schema and mapped to a market implication (narrowing, risk-off, leadership exhaustion, hidden fragility, broadening…). Alerts that imply the same thing form a cluster, scored by the spec blend: base severity (0.25), toolbox confirmation (0.20, how many of the four agree), independence (0.15, distinct evidence types — price vs beta vs breadth vs credit), regime relevance (0.15), persistence (0.10), worsening (0.10) and importance (0.05). A cluster confirmed by three independent tools is a high-conviction read; one tool alone is a watch item. The Master Risk Score tracks the top cluster, lifted when several distinct bearish clusters fire at once.

For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Built on Beta-Instability, Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Divergence Scanner.

FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-10-09

Quick answers

What does the Market Structure Alert Stack show?

It fuses alerts from four independent Market X-Ray toolboxes — Beta-Instability, Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Divergence Scanner — into clusters by market implication, then scores each cluster by how many of the four tools confirm it. The result is one Master Market-Structure Risk Score and a ranked, de-duplicated alert stack.

What is the Master Market-Structure Risk Score right now?

As of 2026-10-09, the Master Market-Structure Risk Score is 85, labeled "critical".

How many alert clusters are confirmed by multiple toolboxes?

As of 2026-10-09, 2 of 6 alert clusters are confirmed by two or more toolboxes, out of 39 raw alerts across all four tools.

How is a cluster’s score calculated?

Each cluster blends base severity (25%), toolbox confirmation (20%, how many of the four tools agree), independence of evidence (15%), regime relevance (15%), persistence (10%), worsening (10%) and importance (5%). A cluster confirmed by three independent tools reads as high-conviction; one tool alone is a watch item.