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Market X-Ray · Toolbox 3

Ratio-Quality Decomposition

A rising ratio is ambiguous. IWM/SPY can rise because small-caps led — or because the S&P fell. This decomposes every structural ratio into what the numerator did versus the denominator, and scores how meaningful the move is: numerator-driven and consistent across horizons = high quality; denominator-driven or one-horizon = low quality, mechanically misleading. Quality is reliability, not direction.

Updated daily · data as of 2026-06-12

Avg quality 64/100 how meaningful, mean
Numerator-driven 68.2% of ratios
Misleading up 0 rising on low quality
Real weakness 0 numerator-driven down

Alerts — misleading strength & real weakness

No high-severity ratio-quality alerts right now.

Every ratio — decomposed (21-day)

RatioStateQualityDriverNumDenRatioTF
Credit Breadth HYG/LQD Flat
33
denominator +0.5% +0.7% -0.2% mixed
High-Beta Breadth SPHB/SPLV Strong leadership
70
numerator +6.1% +2.6% +3.4% aligned
Nasdaq-100 Equal-Weight Breadth QQQE/QQQ Strong leadership
76
numerator +5.7% +0.9% +4.7% mixed
Nasdaq Ex-Top-30 Breadth QNXT/QTOP Absolute leadership
78
numerator +6.3% -0.8% +7.1% mixed
S&P 500 Equal-Weight Breadth RSP/SPY Absolute leadership
87
numerator +4.3% -0.1% +4.4% mixed
Ex-Mag-7 Breadth XMAG/SPY Absolute leadership
98
numerator +4.5% -0.1% +4.6% aligned
Small-Cap Breadth IWM/SPY Absolute leadership
98
numerator +3.6% -0.1% +3.7% aligned
Consumer Risk Breadth XLY/XLP Absolute weakness
51
numerator -1.8% +1.3% -3% mixed
Nasdaq Ex-Tech Breadth QQXT/QQQ Strong leadership
53
numerator +2.1% +0.9% +1.2% mixed
Semiconductor Leadership SMH/XLK Strong leadership
64
numerator +8.3% +4.5% +3.6% aligned
Cyclical Breadth XLI/XLU Absolute leadership
73
numerator +1.5% -0.3% +1.8% mixed
Ex-Tech S&P Breadth SPXT/SPY Absolute weakness
88
numerator -0.6% -0.1% -0.5% aligned
Mid-Cap Breadth MDY/SPY Absolute leadership
98
numerator +3.9% -0.1% +4% aligned
Micro-Cap Breadth IWC/IWM Numerator lag
28
denominator +1.4% +3.6% -2.2% aligned
Software Participation IGV/XLK Lagging in rally
35
denominator +2.4% +4.5% -2% aligned
Small Growth Breadth IWO/IWN Lagging in rally
36
denominator +3% +4.3% -1.3% mixed
Large Growth vs Value IWF/IWD Absolute weakness
41
denominator -2.2% +3.2% -5.2% aligned
AI Participation AIQ/XLK Lagging in rally
41
denominator +3% +4.5% -1.4% aligned
Nasdaq Tech vs Ex-Tech QTEC/QQXT Strong leadership
81
numerator +9.1% +2.1% +6.9% aligned
Extended-Market Breadth VXF/SPY Absolute leadership
87
numerator +4.7% -0.1% +4.8% mixed
Financial Risk Breadth KBE/XLU Absolute leadership
96
numerator +8.4% -0.3% +8.7% aligned
Internet Participation FDN/XLK Numerator lag
2
denominator -0.1% +4.5% -4.4% aligned

How to read it

Using log returns, ratio return = numerator return − denominator return, so each leg's contribution is exact. The quality score is the numerator's share of the move scaled by how consistently the ratio points the same way across 1, 21 and 63 days — high when the asset we track is genuinely the story, low when the move is a denominator artifact. Misleading strength = a ratio rising on a denominator collapse; real weakness = a ratio falling because the numerator itself is deteriorating, confirmed across horizons.

For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Pairs with Breadth-of-Breadth and the Beta-Instability X-Ray.