Market X-Ray · Toolbox 3
Ratio-Quality Decomposition
A rising ratio is ambiguous. IWM/SPY can rise because small-caps led — or because the S&P fell. This decomposes every structural ratio into what the numerator did versus the denominator, and scores how meaningful the move is: numerator-driven and consistent across horizons = high quality; denominator-driven or one-horizon = low quality, mechanically misleading. Quality is reliability, not direction.
Updated daily · data as of 2026-06-12
Alerts — misleading strength & real weakness
No high-severity ratio-quality alerts right now.
Every ratio — decomposed (21-day)
| Ratio | State | Quality | Driver | Num | Den | Ratio | TF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit Breadth HYG/LQD | ▼ Flat | 33 | denominator | +0.5% | +0.7% | -0.2% | mixed |
| High-Beta Breadth SPHB/SPLV | ▲ Strong leadership | 70 | numerator | +6.1% | +2.6% | +3.4% | aligned |
| Nasdaq-100 Equal-Weight Breadth QQQE/QQQ | ▲ Strong leadership | 76 | numerator | +5.7% | +0.9% | +4.7% | mixed |
| Nasdaq Ex-Top-30 Breadth QNXT/QTOP | ▲ Absolute leadership | 78 | numerator | +6.3% | -0.8% | +7.1% | mixed |
| S&P 500 Equal-Weight Breadth RSP/SPY | ▲ Absolute leadership | 87 | numerator | +4.3% | -0.1% | +4.4% | mixed |
| Ex-Mag-7 Breadth XMAG/SPY | ▲ Absolute leadership | 98 | numerator | +4.5% | -0.1% | +4.6% | aligned |
| Small-Cap Breadth IWM/SPY | ▲ Absolute leadership | 98 | numerator | +3.6% | -0.1% | +3.7% | aligned |
| Consumer Risk Breadth XLY/XLP | ▼ Absolute weakness | 51 | numerator | -1.8% | +1.3% | -3% | mixed |
| Nasdaq Ex-Tech Breadth QQXT/QQQ | ▲ Strong leadership | 53 | numerator | +2.1% | +0.9% | +1.2% | mixed |
| Semiconductor Leadership SMH/XLK | ▲ Strong leadership | 64 | numerator | +8.3% | +4.5% | +3.6% | aligned |
| Cyclical Breadth XLI/XLU | ▲ Absolute leadership | 73 | numerator | +1.5% | -0.3% | +1.8% | mixed |
| Ex-Tech S&P Breadth SPXT/SPY | ▼ Absolute weakness | 88 | numerator | -0.6% | -0.1% | -0.5% | aligned |
| Mid-Cap Breadth MDY/SPY | ▲ Absolute leadership | 98 | numerator | +3.9% | -0.1% | +4% | aligned |
| Micro-Cap Breadth IWC/IWM | ▼ Numerator lag | 28 | denominator | +1.4% | +3.6% | -2.2% | aligned |
| Software Participation IGV/XLK | ▼ Lagging in rally | 35 | denominator | +2.4% | +4.5% | -2% | aligned |
| Small Growth Breadth IWO/IWN | ▼ Lagging in rally | 36 | denominator | +3% | +4.3% | -1.3% | mixed |
| Large Growth vs Value IWF/IWD | ▼ Absolute weakness | 41 | denominator | -2.2% | +3.2% | -5.2% | aligned |
| AI Participation AIQ/XLK | ▼ Lagging in rally | 41 | denominator | +3% | +4.5% | -1.4% | aligned |
| Nasdaq Tech vs Ex-Tech QTEC/QQXT | ▲ Strong leadership | 81 | numerator | +9.1% | +2.1% | +6.9% | aligned |
| Extended-Market Breadth VXF/SPY | ▲ Absolute leadership | 87 | numerator | +4.7% | -0.1% | +4.8% | mixed |
| Financial Risk Breadth KBE/XLU | ▲ Absolute leadership | 96 | numerator | +8.4% | -0.3% | +8.7% | aligned |
| Internet Participation FDN/XLK | ▼ Numerator lag | 2 | denominator | -0.1% | +4.5% | -4.4% | aligned |
How to read it
Using log returns, ratio return = numerator return − denominator return, so each leg's contribution is exact. The quality score is the numerator's share of the move scaled by how consistently the ratio points the same way across 1, 21 and 63 days — high when the asset we track is genuinely the story, low when the move is a denominator artifact. Misleading strength = a ratio rising on a denominator collapse; real weakness = a ratio falling because the numerator itself is deteriorating, confirmed across horizons.
For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Pairs with Breadth-of-Breadth and the Beta-Instability X-Ray.