AI Build-Out Index · 4 indices · supply-side AI hardware tracking

AI Build-Out Index

How tight is the AI hardware supply chain? Four independent indices — spot GPU rental, Taiwan AI-supply revenue, the HBM memory bottleneck, and the semicap equipment cycle — each with its own data source, equity basket, and equity-gap signal. The supply side tells you what capacity looks like; the demand side (the Agentic Demand Index) tells you whether the orders are showing up to consume it. Read one against the other; when one moves before the others, that is the rotation signal.

93.3 / 100 Tight

AI Build-Out Index — equal-weighted average of the 4 live indices below (4 of 4 reporting). Each index counts once; an index with no current reading drops out rather than being filled in.

History · momentum Tightening +23 pts recent

92 points · since 2026-05-30

CCST Tight

Compute Spot Tightness

Spot GPU rental + cross-gen ratios

90.0 / 100 Daily scrape · biweekly composite

TAISP Tight

Taiwan AI Supply Pulse

Taiwan ODM + OSAT + foundry revenue

96.0 / 100 Monthly · TWSE filings

MHP Tight

Memory / HBM Pulse

HBM Big-3 supply + equipment + packaging

98.0 / 100 Monthly · 21st

STP Tight

Semicap / Test Pulse

Equipment cycle gating silicon supply

89.0 / 100 Monthly · 18th

How the family is structured

The headline. The AI Build-Out Index is the equal-weighted average of the live member composites — each index counts once, and any index not currently reporting is dropped and the rest renormalised (never a neutral placeholder). It reads how tight the AI hardware supply chain is across the four chokepoints below, and moves as they move.

Each member is an independent index with its own data source and cadence: CCST scrapes the spot GPU-rental market daily; TAISP reads monthly revenue from 25 Taiwan-listed AI-hardware suppliers off TWSE filings; MHP tracks the HBM memory bottleneck (SK Hynix · Samsung · Micron); STP follows the semicap equipment cycle (ASML · AMAT · LRCX · Tokyo Electron) that gates silicon supply 6–12 months out. Composite ≥70 = tight (supply pressure), 40–70 = neutral, <40 = loose (supply catching up).

Each index also computes an Equity Gap — the difference between its composite momentum and the momentum of its equity basket. Positive = the operational signal is improving faster than stocks have priced (bullish divergence); negative = stocks have run ahead of the operational signal. The four read together are a rotation map: when one chokepoint tightens before the others, that is the early tell.

Family reading is a diary entry on our process, not investment advice.

AI Build-Out Index Family — data Q&A

What is the AI Build-Out Index Family?

Supply-side AI hardware tracking as four indices — compute spot tightness, Taiwan AI supply, memory/HBM, semicap/test — one family page with the four pulses and how they move together. Part of the Closelook Lab (AI build-out).

What does the AI Build-Out Index Family cover?

The four supply-side AI hardware pulses as one index family. 4 indices · Supply side · Daily.

How often does it update?

Re-baked after the US close on trading days from the Closelook lake, the index workers and vendor series; the page states its own as-of date.

Where do the four build-out pulses stand now?

Compute Spot Tightness: 90/100 · Taiwan AI Supply Pulse: 96/100 · Memory / HBM Pulse: 98/100 · Semicap / Test Pulse: 89/100. Composites 70+ read accelerating, under 40 decelerating.

Is this investment advice?

No. Every Lab tool is a data surface in an investment research diary — it describes what the engine measures, never what to do.