Fed — minutes point to another rate hike by year-end; Samsung earns a record $80 billion in one quarter

The Morning 10

Fed — minutes point to another rate hike by year-end; Samsung earns a record $80 billion in one quarter

1. 1 Fed minutes — most officials see another rate hike by year-end; oil and AI spending named as inflation risks
2. 2 Stocks slip from records — S&P 500 −0.2%, small caps −1.3%, equal-weight S&P −0.8%
3. 3 Power and cooling — Vicor −5.5%, nVent −3.4%, Eaton −3.1%, Vertiv −2.6%
4. 4 Samsung — record quarterly operating profit of about 107.4 trillion won ($80 billion); the shares barely move
5. 5 Memory — Micron +4.1% to 1,088, SanDisk +1.9%, a day after the hard-drive sell-off
6. 6 Oil — Brent +2.5% to $102.66 overnight on reported tanker attacks and a Gulf storm threat
7. 7 Rubin 100 — now 130 names, −2.2% on Wednesday, +4.0% since the 30 September rebalance
8. 8 Bonds, dollar, gold — 10-year at 5.28%, dollar fund at a one-year high, gold −1.7%
9. 9 Print Record — PepsiCo reports before the open at a one-year low; Penguin Solutions +13.1% heads into Friday
10. 10 Asia lower, US futures flat — Nikkei −0.7%, Taiwan −1.0%; TSMC's September sales due by Saturday

The full Morning 10 →

The Midday 10

Oil — Brent +3.4% to $103.64, energy the only strong sector; chips and power generators sold, PepsiCo +1.1%

• 1 Oil: Brent +3.4% to $103.64, US crude +3.0% to $90.89; energy fund XLE +2.6%
• 2 Narrow dip: S&P 500 −0.27% at 7,781, Nasdaq −0.51%, Dow −0.24%, Russell 2000 −0.60% — equal-weight S&P flat
• 3 Power generators and power modules sold: Vistra −5.2% to $158.03, Constellation −4.7% to $285.57, Vicor −5.8% to $266.31

All ten lines →

Daily Pulse — 60/40 — Not Dead, the Bond Part Needs a Regime

The 60/40 portfolio is not dead. What failed was the static bond half: 40% in long Treasuries, whatever the rate regime. Nobody buys the stock half that way — the stocks are chosen by regime. The bonds need the same call.

The full Pulse →

On the tape

• Money Temperature · Mixed / transitional — 1 heating / 3 cooling
• Rubin 100 · Sector rotation — MATERIALS → INTERCON
• Cross-asset day: VIX 15.4, DXY 102.09, 10Y 5.28% — risk-on regime
• Euro-AI 50 · 1-month leaders — ATS.VI +31.28% / MTRS.ST -19.37%
• Euro-AI 50 · Daily leaders — DSY.PA +5.06% / BESI.AS -8.49%
• HALO 100 · 1-month leaders — ILMN +26.86% / FLNC -30.53%
• HALO 100 · 1-month sector leaders — MEDDEV +3.66% / ENERGY -13.32%
• HALO 100 · Sector flow — LONGEVITY +0.71% / NUCLEAR -4.09%

The books that day

4 recorded trades: Added KLIC (AI Buildout) · Added SKHY (AI Buildout) · Added SKHY (Global Tech 50) · Added SKHY (Hypergrowth). The trade log →