The diary’s books, as wikifolios

The trading idea

Core and Conviction combines two ideas. The first: in the US and elsewhere, a small number of stocks in an index has at times produced most of the stock market’s long-run return. The second: a trend-based reading of the market regime. Together they make a barbell — an index-oriented base on one side, and concentrated positions in structurally selected single stocks on the other, chosen by regime but usually weighted towards technology.

Building blocks

Broad-market, regional and thematic ETFs are combined with selected single stocks. The holdings fall into three kinds: Core — own it, do not trade it; Swing — a core position held for the longer run, with the trading share periodically reduced or increased; and Situational — pure, rather short-term trading positions.

Horizon

The stated investment horizon is short-term. Positions are bought, held and closed — no leverage, no derivatives. Changes are visible on wikifolio in real time.

The trading idea

AI Cycle 2030 is mainly short-term and focused on the AI complex. Its speculative trading idea follows a three-phase, overlapping AI cycle: 1) AI capex and physical bottlenecks, 2) AI opex revenues and 3) AI applications — money first goes into building the capacity, then into running it, then into what is built on top. Whether the cycle unfolds this way cannot be guaranteed.

Universe and diversification

Stocks and ETFs available on wikifolio, usually companies that in the diary’s view take part in the AI build-out directly or indirectly. The book is meant to diversify broadly inside the AI complex and usually holds more than 30 single names; the current count can differ.

The regime switch

A regime analysis sets the trend view and the equity share. When it points to higher stock-market risk, larger parts can move into money-market ETFs or short-dated bond ETFs, usually with maturities of about one to three years, to reduce equity risk for a time — these ETFs can fluctuate too. When the regime looks more favourable for stocks, those positions are reduced or closed again in favour of stocks and equity ETFs. The bond-half logic behind it is in the Daily Pulse 60/40 — Not Dead, the Bond Part Needs a Regime.

Selection and horizon

Decisions rest on fundamental and technical analysis: annual reports, quarterly results, technology roadmaps, industry and market data. Selection weighs market position, AI revenue, pricing power, earnings revisions, valuation and relative strength. Most changes happen within a year, so the stated horizon is short-term; single strategic positions can be held longer while their thesis holds. No leverage, no derivatives.

The trading idea

Global Generation is run globally and with ETFs only. Its basis is Hendrik Bessembinder’s US and global studies, together with German research, finding that a small number of stocks has historically accounted for a disproportionate share of long-run wealth creation. Broad diversification is the way to own those winners without having to pick them in advance.

Building blocks

In market phases the diary judges stable, the book holds mainly equity ETFs. The core is an all-country world ETF with its high US weight plus a world index without the US. Around it sit small- and mid-cap, Nasdaq, thematic, commodity and single-country ETFs — for example, but not only, semiconductors, AI opex and cloud, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Poland or Switzerland. Germany and continental Europe can carry a lower weight, depending on the market regime.

The regime switch

In defensive phases larger parts can move into money-market ETFs or short-dated bond ETFs, usually with maturities of about one to three years; when the regime turns more favourable they are reduced again. The regime is read from the market trend, relative strength, market breadth and moving averages — the same bond-half logic as in the Daily Pulse 60/40 — Not Dead, the Bond Part Needs a Regime.

Selection and holding period

ETFs are chosen for coverage, costs, index quality, diversification, liquidity and tradability; accumulating funds are usually preferred, and thematic ETFs need a long-term structural development behind them. Only ETFs available on wikifolio are traded. Strategic positions can be held for many years; tactical positions are usually adjusted within a year, which is why the stated investment horizon is short-term. No leverage, no derivatives.

The caveat inside the framework

Bessembinder’s evidence assumes public markets capture the bulk of equity wealth creation. That assumption needs watching. Databricks, OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX all have enough private liquidity to stay private more or less indefinitely, at marks the public market has not had the chance to set — and there is precedent for a long stretch where the compounding happened off-exchange, in the 2000–2015 window when the IPO door narrowed and Google arrived in 2004 and Meta not until 2012. The argument for owning the public-market distribution stays valid; the claim that it captures all of the wealth creation is the part that needs monitoring.

The trading idea

The Compound is a global growth book away from the dominant Big-Tech and AI names. It is built from three blocks — roughly a third ETFs, a third mega-cap growth stocks, a third mid-cap growth stocks. That split is an orientation, not a fixed allocation; it moves with the market and with where the opportunities are.

Strategic core positions are combined with tactical ones. The core is meant to benefit from long-run growth and the compounding of rising earnings; the tactical positions use valuation discounts, market overreactions, sector rotation or company-specific events.

Universe

Only stocks and ETFs available on wikifolio, from developed markets and selected emerging markets. Likely centres of gravity: health care, industrials, infrastructure, consumer, financials, energy and specialised market leaders. Using technology does not exclude a company — the thesis just must not depend mainly on the AI trade.

Criteria

For stocks: durable growth in revenue, earnings and cash flow, sound balance sheets, high returns on capital, competitive advantages, pricing power, management quality and a reasonable valuation. Tactical positions may also weigh momentum, sentiment, price trends and near-term catalysts. For ETFs: index construction, regional and sector weights, concentration, costs and liquidity. Position sizes follow quality, valuation, liquidity and the balance of opportunity and risk.

Holding period

From several weeks to several years. Tactical positions are usually held for shorter periods; strategic core positions can stay in the book for the long run. Stocks and ETFs only — no leverage, no derivatives. The editorial home of this book is the Hypergrowth letter’s Growth With No Tech Inside section and the Weekly Signal of August 23.

The rules of the books

All four wikifolios invest in stocks and ETFs from wikifolio’s eligible universe — a broad but limited pool. There is no options overlay, no derivatives, no short positions: positions are bought, held and closed. The strategies are run under those constraints, with the same discipline the diary applies everywhere else.