Factor Regime · daily · SPMO vs SPLV · as of Aug 28, 2026
Momentum vs Low Volatility
The market's risk appetite, read as one line: what it pays for recent winners (SPMO) against what it pays for defensive low-vol (SPLV). Leadership rotates under the index before the index moves — this ratio is where it shows first.
Mechanical read
Momentum repair attempt below trend
Ratio 1.955 · 89.68th percentile of the window · below the 50-day trend · 20d +3.61% · 60d -9.62%
Ratio SPMO/SPLV
1.955
indexed 155.25 vs 100 at 2024-06-03
Rate of change
+3.61%
20 sessions · 60d -9.62%
Momentum leg — SPMO
146.78
20d +2.05% · 60d -5.36%
Low-vol leg — SPLV
75.08
20d -1.51% · 60d +4.71%
SPMO / SPLV — indexed to 100 at 2024-06-03 · dashed = 50-day trend
How to read it
Four mechanical states, from the ratio against its 50-day trend and the sign of the 20-day rate of change: momentum leading (above trend, rising — risk appetite building), cooling above trend (above trend, falling — leadership being withdrawn while the tape still looks fine), defensive rotation (below trend, falling — the regime-change watch state), and repair below trend (below trend, rising — momentum trying to re-take leadership).
The pair is same-issuer and same-universe — both hold S&P 500 subsets — so the ratio isolates the factor preference without index or sector noise. Both legs are in the Morning 10 and Midday 10 boards daily; this page is the standing series behind those mentions.
Computed close-to-close from lake bars, refreshed nightly. A data surface, not advice — an investment diary. Window starts 2024-06-03 (SPMO history).
FAQ · from the current data
Factor Regime — data Q&A
What does the Factor Regime board track?
The ratio between the S&P 500 Momentum ETF (SPMO — recent price winners) and the S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV — defensive, low-beta names), read as a risk-appetite gauge: level, 50-day trend, 20-day and 60-day rate of change, plus the absolute levels of both legs. See market regime in the glossary. The board refreshes nightly after each US close.
Where does the momentum/low-vol ratio stand right now?
At the most recent scan — the Aug 28, 2026 US close — the SPMO/SPLV ratio stands at 1.955 — the 89.68th percentile of the window since 2024-06-03 — below its 50-day trend, with a 20-day rate of change of +3.61% and 60-day of -9.62%. Mechanical read: Momentum repair attempt below trend. The reading rolls forward nightly with the lake ingest.
Why is this pair a leading indicator for regime change?
Index level can hold flat while leadership rotates underneath it. When momentum names stop outrunning low-vol names — the ratio rolling over through its trend — risk appetite is being withdrawn before it shows in the index. The reverse, momentum re-taking leadership, tends to precede broad risk-on. The signal is the ratio and its rate of change, not either leg alone.
How are the figures computed?
From daily lake closes of both ETFs, close-to-close, paired on shared trading dates since 2024-06-03 (SPMO history limits the window). The ratio is indexed to 100 at the window start; rate of change is the percentage move of the raw ratio over trailing 20 and 60 sessions. Refreshed nightly after the lake ingests the US close; the figures currently shown are from the Aug 28, 2026 close.