ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares (ASML) — the earnings record
As of the 2026-10-13 card — updated after each print. An investment research diary, not advice.
The record at a glance
Reactions across the covered prints span -4.6% to +3.2% — the beat column and the reaction column frequently disagree, which is the whole reason the record scores them separately. The street carries est revenue ~$13.17B into the next print.
Print by print
| Date | EPS | Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26 | 2026-07-15 | ✓ beat | ✓ beat |
| Apr 26 | 2026-04-15 | ✓ beat | ✓ beat |
| Jan 26 | 2026-01-28 | ✗ miss | ✓ beat |
| Oct 25 | 2025-10-15 | ✓ beat | ✗ miss |
| Jul 25 | 2025-07-16 | ✓ beat | ✓ beat |
| Apr 25 | 2025-04-16 | ✓ beat | ✓ beat |
| Jan 25 | 2025-01-29 | ✗ miss | ✓ beat |
| Oct 24 | 2024-10-15 | ✓ beat | ✓ beat |
| Jul 24 | 2024-07-17 | ✓ beat | ✓ beat |
| Apr 24 | 2024-04-17 | ✓ beat | ✗ miss |
The per-print reaction chart, the load-bearing metric and the behavior read live on the full ASML print-record card — free registration.
FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-10-13
Quick answers
How often does ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares beat earnings estimates?
Across the last 10 covered prints (as of the 2026-10-13 card), ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares beat EPS estimates 8 of 10 times and revenue estimates 8 of 10 times, with 6 double beats.
How does ASML stock react to earnings?
Measured close-of-print-day to the close three sessions later: 1 of the last 10 prints resolved up (beyond +3%), 6 flat, 3 down — reactions spanning -4.6% to +3.2%. Beat-or-miss and reaction are scored separately because they frequently disagree.
What was ASML's biggest earnings reaction?
-4.6% over the three sessions after the Jul 25 print (2025-07-16).
When does ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares report earnings next?
2026-10-14 (est EPS $12.13 · est revenue ~$13.17B). The full print-record card — reaction chart, the load-bearing metric and the behavior read — updates after each print; registration is free. An investment research diary, not advice.
Mentioned on Closelooknet
Where ASML appears in the diary — 68 pieces, newest first. Every link is our own writing.
Go deeper
Long reads
- The Agentic Winners 25
ASML makes extreme ultraviolet lithography machines.
- Where to Invest in the AI Chip Constraint Chain
ASML's High-NA EUV (€350M/unit) enters volume deployment.
- Who Owns the AI Chip Buildout?
EUV embargo / yield ceilings / talent drain / overcapacity glut 🇪🇺 Europe Equipment gatekeeper (ASML 100% EUV).
- Two and a half months of lower highs, then a second low that held above the first — and on Friday the oscillator turned.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose more than 3%; Nvidia is breaking out to new all-time highs; Applied Materials rose 5%, Marvell, Micron, ASML and Arm about 4%, AMD and Intel 3%, Astera Labs 11%.
- TSMC — The Toll at the Only Bridge
Sources TSMC, Q2 2026 earnings release and guidance, 16 July 2026 — investor.tsmc.com TSMC Q2 2026 earnings call transcript and coverage — 16 July 2026; CNBC on the Arizona commitment TSMC 2026 Technology Symposium disclosures…
- Situational Awareness — Crushed While Correct
The fund evidently distinguished between first-wave names it considered finished (Nvidia, ASML, Broadcom, AMD, Oracle, the SMH complex — puts without meaningful offsetting calls) and constraint-chain names caught in first-wave wrappers…
- Chip Testing — The Verification Tax
TSMC and Nvidia are the next parts of this series, and the genuinely contested cases — ASML, HBM as distinct from commodity DRAM, the power chain — are where the rubric will earn its keep.
- Sector Rotation — Three Rotations, One Week
The prints came in good to record-setting — ASML's capacity frame, TSMC's record quarter, Netflix's growth — and the tape sold every one of them.
101 and glossary
- AI Barbell Strategy: Long Infrastructure, Short Disrupted Incumbents
ASML's EUV machines are required by every advanced fab.
- AI Infrastructure Outlook 2026: Layers, Risks, and Positioning
ASML's High-NA EUV is ramping but won't impact supply meaningfully until late 2026.
- DXY (US Dollar Index)
For AI infrastructure investors, the DXY matters because many supply chain companies are non-US (TSMC in Taiwan, ASML in the Netherlands, Samsung in South Korea) — a strong dollar compresses their valuations when converted to USD terms.
- Economic Moat
In AI investing, Closelooknet distinguishes between physics-based moats (ASML's EUV monopoly, TSMC's fabrication lead) and software moats (which agentic AI may erode).
- EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography)
ASML is the sole supplier of EUV machines.
- Lithography
The chip-manufacturing step that uses light to pattern circuits onto silicon; ASML's EUV monopoly defines the leading edge.
- Non-US Tech: The Widest Valuation Gap in a Decade
The standard explanation — US companies deserve premiums for growth and innovation — ignores that many of the most critical AI supply chain companies are non-US: ASML (Netherlands), TSMC (Taiwan), SK Hynix (Korea), BESI (Netherlands)…
- Photolithography
The leading edge requires extreme ultraviolet (EUV) light, which is the source of ASML's strategic position.
Dailies
- Banks — More Profit, Still Not Enough
Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and ASML follow on Wednesday, TSMC on Thursday.
- Earnings — J&J −6.2% and Citi −3.8% after beats; Micron −5.1%, chip fund back under its 50-day line
The chip selling that started in Korea continues in New York: Micron −5.1% to $938, ASML −3.1% a day before its report, the chip fund SOXX −1.3% and back under its 50-day average.
- Korea — Kospi −5.5% breaks its 18-month uptrend; SK Hynix and Samsung about −8% on a China memory scare
Bank of America and Morgan Stanley follow on Wednesday, with ASML; TSMC reports on Thursday.
- Earnings Week — Banks First, Then the AI Test
JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs report on Tuesday, ASML and Bank of America on Wednesday, TSMC on Thursday.
- Korea — Kospi −3.5% on its first day back as chipmakers catch up; SpaceX deal sinks T-Mobile 13%
The big banks report on Tuesday, US inflation data come on Wednesday, ASML on Wednesday and TSMC on Thursday.
- AI Trade — Capex Sold, Apps Bought
The signals to watch: the Agentic Demand pulses moving from mass adoption back towards pilots; the borrowed-money builders on our credit stress board ; and the capex plans from ASML on 14 October and TSMC on 15 October.
- AI Build-Out — Spotting the 2027 Slowdown
ASML reports on 14 October and TSMC gives its spending plan on 15 October.
- Stocks — broadly lower after the records: Russell 2000 −1.4%, power and cooling names sold, Penguin +15.3%
The chip-machine makers fall for a third day: Lam Research −2.3%, Applied Materials −2.1%, ASML −1.9%, KLA −1.2%.
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