Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) — Technical state

Long reads

• Bitcoin and Gold — Cointegration as Regime, Not StateDossier · $29 · 28 Apr 2026BTC versus NDX (proxied by QQQ) tests the lead-lag thesis: when crypto-native sentiment leads institutional risk-on positioning, BTC moves first and NDX follows in a measurable lag window; when the lead breaks down, BTC trades on its own…
• Earnings — Post-Earnings Announcement DriftDossier · $29 · 27 Apr 2026The +32.80% T+3 CAR puts RBRK in the deepest corner of the long-quintile distribution; the drift continued to deliver +15.00% CAR through T+63 even as QQQ itself declined 6%.
• The AI software company whose sales grew 93% while its stock fell by half: back within 7% of its record after breaking a two-month range — at 83 times next year's earningsChart Pick · 25 Sept 2026The pick against software (IGV), cloud software (CLOU) and the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ), one year each.
• Bitcoin — New Life for the Coins and the StocksWeekly Signal · 20 Sept 2026
• Cybersecurity — Sold on Price, Bought on FlowWeekly Signal · 13 Sept 20265 · The two funds against software and the index CIBR (First Trust Nasdaq Cybersecurity) and WCBR (WisdomTree Cybersecurity) one year, against the software fund IGV and the Nasdaq 100 fund QQQ, rebased to 100 on September 11, 2025.
• Rubin Build-Out 100 — Rubin at the DoorWeekly Signal · 6 Sept 2026
• Software vs Semis — The Axis TurnedWeekly Signal · 23 Aug 2026Growth without tech, as one line: QQXT / QQQ weekly since 2007, log scale.
• Gold and Bitcoin — The Hedges Bear No InterestWeekly Signal · 2 Aug 20266 · How it may define the next weeks Watch the two hedge lines against the tape's own decision line — QQQ's 694, the level the US letter carries.

101 and glossary

• Bollinger Coiling: When Volatility Compresses Before Expanding101Coils in the macro basket — particularly in SPY, QQQ, and TLT — are disproportionately informative.
• Cascade Tracker: The 5-Domino Model of Regime Breakdown101If pairs break out-of-order (say, TLT-SPY before QQQ-SPY), it signals something unusual about the stress source — rate-driven rather than risk-appetite-driven, for example.
• Cointegration: When the Rules of the Game Change101
• Money Temperature: Measuring Regime Intensity, Not Predicting Direction101Four pairs, each representing a structural axis of capital allocation: SPY/QQQ (risk appetite, with QQQ isolating the AI speculation premium), TLT/UUP (duration and dollar — the rate regime), GLD/BTC-USD (de-dollarization channels …
• Stack Flip: When Price Crosses the 200-Day Moving Average101Ignoring flips in major macro instruments (SPY, QQQ, TLT, GLD) means missing the moments when regimes visibly change.

Dailies

• Korea — Kospi −5.5% breaks its 18-month uptrend; SK Hynix and Samsung about −8% on a China memory scareMorning 10 · 13 Oct 2026
• Chips — memory and optics sold again: Lumentum −7.7%, SanDisk −6.5%, chip fund −2.6%; Meta +3.8%Midday 10 · 12 Oct 2026
• Korea — Kospi −3.5% on its first day back as chipmakers catch up; SpaceX deal sinks T-Mobile 13%Morning 10 · 12 Oct 2026The Nasdaq-100 fund QQQ added only 0.2%, the small-cap Russell 2000 lost 0.9%.
• Portfolios — No Trades as Chips Fell 5%Daily Pulse · 10 Oct 2026The week those books sat through: SOXX down 5.0 percent while the Nasdaq 100 fund QQQ edged up 0.2 percent and the equal-weight S&P fund RSP rose 1.6 percent; small caps (IWM) fell 0.9 percent.
• AI Capex — chip index −3.4% after OpenAI's revenue comes in at $50 billion, not $70 billion; software risesMorning 10 · 9 Oct 2026
• AI Trade — cloud fund +2.9% on a second up day, security +2.7%; chips −0.9% again, Delta −1.6% on fuelMidday 10 · 9 Oct 2026
• Fed — minutes point to another rate hike by year-end; Samsung earns a record $80 billion in one quarterMorning 10 · 8 Oct 2026
• Oil — Brent +3.4% to $103.64, energy the only strong sector; chips and power generators sold, PepsiCo +1.1%Midday 10 · 8 Oct 2026