Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — Technical state

Long reads

• The Agentic Winners 25Dossier · $49 · 31 Mar 2026Bellwethers — large, liquid names like Microsoft, Salesforce, and Intuit whose price action telegraphs sector sentiment before mid-caps move.
• NVIDIA 2030Dossier · $49 · 24 Mar 2026The historical analogy chain — Microsoft (Windows monopoly) → Apple (consumer computing platform) → AWS (global cloud utility) → NVIDIA (global intelligence utility) — frames the scale of what is happening.
• Agentic Application Software: The SaaSpocalypse MapDossier · $39 · 27 Feb 2026Palantir (PLTR) · ServiceNow (NOW) · SAP (partial — ERP data locked in) Productivity & Collaboration Adapt or die — copilots vs replacement Microsoft owns the distribution channel: 365 + Copilot captures the vast majority of enterprise…
• AI Economy — Three Futures for 2030, and the One the Model Leaves OutReport · 14 Sept 2026Microsoft’s chief executive welcomed deliberate pacing.
• Google and RSI — The Loop Nobody Has ClosedReport · 13 Sept 2026
• Magnificent Seven — The Seven at the ShelfWeekly Signal · 30 Aug 2026The Magnificent Seven fund was +2.66% on the week against the flat index, Microsoft led the board at +6.3%, and six of the seven were green.
• Pattern 03 — NVIDIA Strategic Authority InvestmentReport · 12 May 2026Three rhythmic series run alongside the dated events: Hyperscaler earnings (MSFT / GOOGL / META / AMZN, quarterly) — capex disclosures set NVIDIA's tape.
• The SaaS Litmus Test: Is The March Bottom Real?Weekly Signal · 19 Apr 2026

101 and glossary

• Agentic AI Adoption Curve: Where We Are and What Comes Next101The 'Cannibalize or Die' companies that pivoted early (Microsoft Copilot, Salesforce Agentforce) start showing agent-platform revenue.
• The CapEx Cliff Question: When Does AI Infrastructure Spending Peak?101Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) are spending over $200 billion annually on AI infrastructure.

Dailies

• Earnings — J&J −6.2% and Citi −3.8% after beats; Micron −5.1%, chip fund back under its 50-day lineMidday 10 · 13 Oct 2026A few big software and platform names bought: Oracle +3.1% to $141.68, Meta +2.8% to $763.40, Microsoft +0.8%
• Korea — Kospi −5.5% breaks its 18-month uptrend; SK Hynix and Samsung about −8% on a China memory scareMorning 10 · 13 Oct 2026Monday added Meta +3.4% and Microsoft +1.1% on the user side.
• Chips — memory and optics sold again: Lumentum −7.7%, SanDisk −6.5%, chip fund −2.6%; Meta +3.8%Midday 10 · 12 Oct 2026Software holds up better, but it is not rising as a group: Salesforce +2.5%, Workday +2.8% and Microsoft +1.1% are up, while the software fund IGV and the cloud fund CLOU are both down 0.7%.
• AI Trade — cloud fund +2.9% on a second up day, security +2.7%; chips −0.9% again, Delta −1.6% on fuelMidday 10 · 9 Oct 2026Cloud landlords: Oracle +4.8% to $141.73, Microsoft +2.4% to $534.92
• Oil — Brent +3.4% to $103.64, energy the only strong sector; chips and power generators sold, PepsiCo +1.1%Midday 10 · 8 Oct 2026A few large names hold up: Palantir +2.4% to $198.76, Apple +0.4%, Microsoft +0.3%
• Stocks — broadly lower after the records: Russell 2000 −1.4%, power and cooling names sold, Penguin +15.3%Midday 10 · 7 Oct 2026Megacaps mixed to lower: Meta −2.1% to $723.71, Tesla −1.3%, Alphabet −0.6%, Microsoft −0.4%
• S&P 500 — record high as Marvell jumps 7.6% on its investor day; chip-machine makers slideMidday 10 · 6 Oct 2026Software joins in: software fund IGV +1.7%, ahead of the chip funds SMH +0.5% and SOXX +0.8%; Palo Alto +3.5%, CrowdStrike +3.2%, Microsoft +1.5% to a record $532.89
• Jobs day — futures +0.3% before payrolls; Nike −8.7% after hours, Accenture holds +15.8%Morning 10 · 2 Oct 2026The disrupted come back: Microsoft −22.9% in the first half, +37.5% since; Accenture −53.6%, then +47.4%; software fund IGV −14.3%, then +17.5%