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Closelook@US Stock Markets
S&P 500 — The Market Trades a Rate Peak, and the Rally Broadens
The Fed's minutes pointed to another rate hike and the ten-year real yield touched its highest level since 2008 — and the market traded as if the top in rates were in. Utilities, staples, health care, financials and the consumer names rose; the equal-weight S&P beat the Nasdaq 100 by more than a point; the Nasdaq without its tech stocks rose 2.4% a week after its year low. The bottoms came in a sequence — utilities on 28 September, financials on the 30th, staples on 1 October, health care on the 2nd, real estate on the 7th. The chips paid for it, down 5%, while software, cloud and security made highs of the year. The Nasdaq 100 fund held its confirmation line all week. What has not joined yet says how far the peak trade has run — homebuilders, regional banks and small caps fell.
Edition of 2026-10-11
The US tape, structure-first — indices, semis, software, the builds behind the moves.
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Closelook@Global Stock Markets
Global Markets — Brazil Jumps 14%, Korea Falls 8%, America Takes the Year Back
Brazil's fund jumped 14% after the first round of its election, and Latin America and China rose with it — while the chip markets that carried the quarter fell, Korea by 7.6 percent, as the AI trade moved from the companies that build it to the companies that sell it. Software rose, chips fell, and in America the average stock beat the Nasdaq. The world ex-US index closed the week three cents under its structural line, and for the first time this year America leads it for 2026. The dollar made another high close and the euro its lowest of the year; the ten-year real yield touched its highest since November 2008. TSMC's September sales passed the test this letter set for them — and the chip markets fell anyway.
Edition of 2026-10-10
The world ex-US in one read — regions, flows, and where the capital actually lands.
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Closelook@Hypergrowth
AI Stocks — The Flow Came True. The Builders Fell, the Sellers Rose
Last week the flow said the AI builders were rising on tired legs and the applications were turning while they fell. This week the price followed. The builder index fell 3.4% with four of its 36 sub-indices green; the applications index rose 4.9% with all nine green; the runner between them closed at a record. Security, observability and data software led, Schneider Electric bought PTC at a 42% premium, and a report on OpenAI's revenue sent the chip names down. Five winners and five losers of the week, the supply gauges cooling, and ASML and TSMC on Wednesday and Thursday with a new question — not how much was sold this year, but how much will be spent next year.
Edition of 2026-10-11
The fastest-growing names and the discipline for holding them.
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