Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — the earnings record

As of the 2026-10-13 card — updated after each print. An investment research diary, not advice.

The record at a glance

10/11EPS beats

11/11revenue beats

3 · 5 · 3up · flat · down (+3d, ±3%)

2026-10-15next print

Reactions across the covered prints span -4.5% to +4.0% — the beat column and the reaction column frequently disagree, which is the whole reason the record scores them separately. The street carries Reported 15 October before the US open: EPS $4.60 per US share vs $4.45, revenue $46.72B vs ~$45.67B — a beat on both lines; Q4 guided to $52.3–54.3B. Window from Thursday’s close of 422.25: paid ≥ 434.92, sold < 409.58, scored Tuesday 20 October. into the next print.

Print by print

Print	Date	EPS	Revenue
Oct 26	2026-10-15	✓ beat	✓ beat
Jul 26	2026-07-16	✓ beat	✓ beat
Apr 26	2026-04-16	✓ beat	✓ beat
Jan 26	2026-01-15	✓ beat	✓ beat
Oct 25	2025-10-16	✓ beat	✓ beat
Jul 25	2025-07-17	✓ beat	✓ beat
Apr 25	2025-04-17	✓ beat	✓ beat
Jan 25	2025-01-16	✗ miss	✓ beat
Oct 24	2024-10-17	✓ beat	✓ beat
Jul 24	2024-07-18	✓ beat	✓ beat
Apr 24	2024-04-18	✓ beat	✓ beat

The per-print reaction chart, the load-bearing metric and the behavior read live on the full TSM print-record card — free registration.

FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-10-13

Quick answers

How often does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing beat earnings estimates?

Across the last 11 covered prints (as of the 2026-10-13 card), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing beat EPS estimates 10 of 11 times and revenue estimates 11 of 11 times, with 10 double beats.

How does TSM stock react to earnings?

Measured close-of-print-day to the close three sessions later: 3 of the last 11 prints resolved up (beyond +3%), 5 flat, 3 down — reactions spanning -4.5% to +4.0%. Beat-or-miss and reaction are scored separately because they frequently disagree.

What was TSM's biggest earnings reaction?

-4.5% over the three sessions after the Jul 25 print (2025-07-17).

When does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing report earnings next?

2026-10-15 (Reported 15 October before the US open: EPS $4.60 per US share vs $4.45, revenue $46.72B vs ~$45.67B — a beat on both lines; Q4 guided to $52.3–54.3B. Window from Thursday’s close of 422.25: paid ≥ 434.92, sold < 409.58, scored Tuesday 20 October.). The full print-record card — reaction chart, the load-bearing metric and the behavior read — updates after each print; registration is free. An investment research diary, not advice.

Mentioned on Closelooknet

Where TSM appears in the diary — 47 pieces, newest first. Every link is our own writing.

Go deeper

Long reads

Where to Invest in the AI Chip Constraint ChainDossier · $29 · 3 Mar 202617× Trail P/E 15× Fwd P/E +47% Rev Growth TSMC TSM · $374 Constructive Constraint: 92% leading-edge, 75% advanced packaging 28× trailing (vs.
Who Owns the AI Chip Buildout?Dossier · $39 · 12 Feb 2026
AI Economy — Three Futures for 2030, and the One the Model Leaves OutReport · 14 Sept 2026
This company makes every AI chip that matters and 73% of the world’s outsourced chips — sales are up 53% in a month, and the stock is coiled in a triangle whose apex is this weekChart Pick · 11 Sept 2026
TSMC — The Toll at the Only BridgeReport · 13 Aug 2026How we hold it TSM is a constituent of the Rubin Build-Out 100 ; the print record carries its reaction history, and the stock page the live structure.
AI Bull Market — The 2026 Verification PhaseReport · 20 Mar 2026January 15 TSMC (TSM) — The Hub Utilization rates for 3nm/2nm chips.
Nvidia Ecosystem — Wave 1: The ‘Stacking’ PeakReport · 20 Feb 2026TSMC TSM 0.98 Correlation Tier I Classification Linear · 2026–2030 Role Monopoly Manufacturer Why Every Rubin (3nm) and Feynman (2nm) chip is a TSMC wafer.

101 and glossary

NVIDIA Investor's Timeline: Hopper to Blackwell to Rubin and Beyond101The investment question is not "is NVIDIA a good company?" — it's "is NVIDIA's stock a good risk-adjusted investment at this price?" Key Companies NVDA NVIDIA Architecture owner — Hopper/Blackwell/Rubin TSM TSMC Fabrication + CoWoS…
The Packaging Bottleneck: Advanced Packaging as the AI Chokepoint101Key Companies TSM TSMC CoWoS monopoly — packaging capacity owner BESI BE Semiconductor Hybrid bonding equipment leader ASX ASE Technology Largest OSAT provider IBDN Ibiden Advanced packaging substrates

Dailies

Big Tech Earnings — Seoul buys back the chip sell-off as Tesla, Meta, IBM, SAP and Lam Research report tonightMorning 10 · 21 Oct 2026
Tech — the tape buys the reporters: Nasdaq-100 +1.1%, Meta +2.4%, Tesla +3.6% hours before their printsMidday 10 · 21 Oct 2026
Chips — one day of bounce, then Asia sells it: Kospi −4.3%, SK Hynix −5.3%, Nasdaq futures lowerMorning 10 · 20 Oct 2026
Chips — the open follows Seoul, then turns: chip index from −2.4% to +0.7%; small caps +1.6%Midday 10 · 20 Oct 2026
AI Trade — builders and runners sold, users bought: chips enter a bear market, Accenture +9.9% on the weekMorning 10 · 19 Oct 2026
Chips — bounce 2.5% to break an eight-day losing run; QQQ back above 720, AI users still boughtMidday 10 · 19 Oct 2026
AI Trade — Asia bounces, Kospi +3.3%; Nasdaq-100 holds its support line, Jakarta −10.8% on MSCIMorning 10 · 16 Oct 2026
AI Trade — Kospi −8.5%, Nikkei −4.7% after hot US inflation; TSMC beats, Nasdaq-100 on supportMorning 10 · 15 Oct 2026

Related in the Closelooknet universe

same Closelooknet index seat first, then Semiconductors. Scored names rank on their Closelooknet score; names without one rank on trend state — above or below their 50- and 200-day averages — never on a score they do not carry.