Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — Technical state
As of 2026-10-20 — re-computed nightly across the coverage universe. Closelooknet diary readings, not advice.
12.8% off its high — yet the $586 consensus implies +37.8%.
The moving-average stack
- vs 20-day-5.5%
- vs 50-day-2.1%
- vs 200-day+7.4%
- 52-week band12.8% off the high · +65.6% off the low
- Streak2 consecutive up sessions
- 50-day crossprice crossed down through the 50-day 5 sessions ago
- Stochastic%K 15.2 · %D 12.9 · up cross
Analyst consensus (context)
Target 586 (+37.8% vs the baked price) · Buy · 18 buy / 7 hold / 0 sell. Third-party consensus, shown for context — not a Closelooknet view.
Continue: the TSM chart & overview · quality & forensics · the earnings record · the signal board
FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-10-20
Quick answers
What is the current Closelooknet signal on TSM?
Widest analyst gap — 12.8% off its high — yet the $586 consensus implies +37.8%. As of 2026-10-20; the signal board re-computes across the coverage universe nightly. A research diary reading, not advice.
Is TSM above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages?
As of 2026-10-20, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing trades -2.1% below its 50-day and +7.4% above its 200-day average, with the 20-day -5.5% away.
How far is TSM from its 52-week high?
12.8% below the 52-week high and 65.6% above the 52-week low, as of 2026-10-20.
What is the analyst consensus on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing?
Consensus target 586 (+37.8% vs the baked price), rating Buy, with 18 buy / 7 hold / 0 sell recommendations — third-party consensus data, shown for context, not a Closelooknet view.
Mentioned on Closelooknet
Where TSM appears in the diary — 47 pieces, newest first. Every link is our own writing.
Go deeper
Long reads
- Where to Invest in the AI Chip Constraint Chain
17× Trail P/E 15× Fwd P/E +47% Rev Growth TSMC TSM · $374 Constructive Constraint: 92% leading-edge, 75% advanced packaging 28× trailing (vs.
- Who Owns the AI Chip Buildout?
- AI Economy — Three Futures for 2030, and the One the Model Leaves Out
- This company makes every AI chip that matters and 73% of the world’s outsourced chips — sales are up 53% in a month, and the stock is coiled in a triangle whose apex is this week
- TSMC — The Toll at the Only Bridge
How we hold it TSM is a constituent of the Rubin Build-Out 100 ; the print record carries its reaction history, and the stock page the live structure.
- AI Bull Market — The 2026 Verification Phase
January 15 TSMC (TSM) — The Hub Utilization rates for 3nm/2nm chips.
- Nvidia Ecosystem — Wave 1: The ‘Stacking’ Peak
TSMC TSM 0.98 Correlation Tier I Classification Linear · 2026–2030 Role Monopoly Manufacturer Why Every Rubin (3nm) and Feynman (2nm) chip is a TSMC wafer.
101 and glossary
- NVIDIA Investor's Timeline: Hopper to Blackwell to Rubin and Beyond
The investment question is not "is NVIDIA a good company?" — it's "is NVIDIA's stock a good risk-adjusted investment at this price?" Key Companies NVDA NVIDIA Architecture owner — Hopper/Blackwell/Rubin TSM TSMC Fabrication + CoWoS…
- The Packaging Bottleneck: Advanced Packaging as the AI Chokepoint
Key Companies TSM TSMC CoWoS monopoly — packaging capacity owner BESI BE Semiconductor Hybrid bonding equipment leader ASX ASE Technology Largest OSAT provider IBDN Ibiden Advanced packaging substrates
Dailies
- Big Tech Earnings — Seoul buys back the chip sell-off as Tesla, Meta, IBM, SAP and Lam Research report tonight
- Tech — the tape buys the reporters: Nasdaq-100 +1.1%, Meta +2.4%, Tesla +3.6% hours before their prints
- Chips — one day of bounce, then Asia sells it: Kospi −4.3%, SK Hynix −5.3%, Nasdaq futures lower
- Chips — the open follows Seoul, then turns: chip index from −2.4% to +0.7%; small caps +1.6%
- AI Trade — builders and runners sold, users bought: chips enter a bear market, Accenture +9.9% on the week
- Chips — bounce 2.5% to break an eight-day losing run; QQQ back above 720, AI users still bought
- AI Trade — Asia bounces, Kospi +3.3%; Nasdaq-100 holds its support line, Jakarta −10.8% on MSCI
- AI Trade — Kospi −8.5%, Nikkei −4.7% after hot US inflation; TSMC beats, Nasdaq-100 on support
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same Closelooknet index seat first, then Semiconductors. Scored names rank on their Closelooknet score; names without one rank on trend state — above or below their 50- and 200-day averages — never on a score they do not carry.
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