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Weekly Signal · · 12 min read

Weekly Signal cover — Long Bond — A Second Gap Higher, and Both Still Open

Long Bond — A Second Gap Higher, and Both Still Open

In this edition

One signal to define the week and shape the month. Three minutes, six questions. Every Sunday at 21:00 CET — scored the next.

25 October 2026 · stock and bond closes through Fri Oct 23.

0 · Last week, scored

Verdict: the July low held on the close — by 2.71 dollars; the analog half of the fund held through Texas Instruments' report; the AI-connectivity names split.

Last Sunday's signal was the second tier of the chip industry: the equal-weight chip fund XSD back at its July low, a second leg down that we expected to end slowly, and the editor's note that he sees it as a major buying opportunity. The fund's lowest close of the week was 452.12 on Thursday, in the day the chip funds fell 6 to 7 percent; the July close of 449.41 held, by 2.71. Intraday it traded at 446.54, under the line. It finished the week at 453.75, down 1.8%, under the editor's line near 461. The named test came in: Texas Instruments reported a third-quarter revenue of 6.06 billion dollars, about 28% more than a year earlier, and earnings of 2.62 dollars a share against about 2.41 expected, with a fourth quarter guided roughly flat. The stock rose 3.0% on the week; NXP rose 2.4% and Skyworks 4.7%. Of the AI-connectivity names, Credo made a new low; MaxLinear, Astera Labs and Semtech did not.

Table: Last week, scored — 7 rows; columns Level set last Sunday, Line, This week, Scored.
Table as text
Level set last SundayLineThis weekScored
Chip stocks, equal weight (XSD)449.41 / about 461452.12 lowest close, 453.75 Friday, −1.8%July low held on the close; 461 lost
Chip stocks, 30 largest (SOXX)465.00 / 537.33475.69 lowest close, 478.20 Friday, −3.1%July low held
Texas Instruments (the test)the outlookrevenue $6.06bn (+28%), EPS 2.62 vs about 2.41; stock +3.0%analog half held
Credo · MaxLinear · Astera Labs · Semtechnew lows?Credo 147.29, a new low; the other three above their lowssplit
Nasdaq 100 fund (QQQ)704.54704.47 Thursday, 704.40 Fridaytouched — closed 7 and 14 cents under
S&P 500 fund (SPY)768.50 / 779.09759.97 Friday, −0.4%under the 50-day
US 10-year yield5.0% / 5.31%5.00% Fridayon the line

Closelooknet data lake · Friday closes through Oct 23 · Texas Instruments from its SEC filing (Form 8-K, 21 October) · a level is “taken” on a closing basis.

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